Steve,
It's been an exciting morning here in the southern KC area.  I put together a document (attached) because ANGEL was down earlier this morning.  Also attached are notated surface analysis maps (yours from your post and the current from HPC) showing our location in relation to the events occurring.

On the radar loop (limited shelf life) http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/mosaic.loop/DS.p19r0/ar.us.conus.shtml you can see the classic comma of the occluding low - our area is in the comma where the snowy precip is occurring.  Couldn't ask for a better example!

Debbie

4_12Z_sfc_Jan_10_2006_NOTATED.gif (80633 bytes)

HPC_Surf_Anal_Jan_10_2006_NOTATED.gif (179698 bytes)

Winter_Weather_Event_Jan_10_2006.doc (43520 bytes)

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The southeast is fairly active at the moment.  Here's a radar image from Birmingham, Alabama (1).  The front is sitting east of Mississippi, as shown in the attached Surface Analysis (2), with convection developing on its eastern side in the baroclinic zone.  Look at the dry line - there was brief and spotty precip in central and eastern Texas yesterday, but not today.  This frontal image also shows the precipiation in relation to the frontal boundary (3).

I've also attached a visible satellite image that clearly marks the line of more heavily convective clouds (they almost look edible)(4).  This link, with limited shelf life, shows the Convective Outlook, which runs along the lines that the atmosphere is still too stable for anything extreme to form.  However, they see signs that more destabilization will occur as the front moves toward the Carolinas.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov//

I wanted to find a map with the lift indices, and found this Lift Index from the e-wall, but am not sure how to read it - (5) - there's alot of precipitable water showing up in the whole southeast, but the lift index isn't shaded there, and shows a line of 2 through the southern Gulf states. 

Debbie

1_Birmingham__AL_Radar_1-17-06.png (74223 bytes)

2_Surf_Anal_Jan_17_06.gif (148472 bytes)

3_Front_Image_Jan_17_06.gif (104845 bytes)

4_SE_Vis_Sat_Jan_17_06.gif (469877 bytes)

5_Lift_Index_Precip_Water_Jan_17_06.gif (41284 bytes)

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Unfortunately, I've reached my bedtime (past it, actually).  And staring at a computer screen for 12 hours is hard on the eyes.  I didn't get a chance to look through all our reference links, but will give you this from our local station weather blog.  What I wanted to do was go through and retrieve the data to either back up or refute what he's saying about tomorrow's weather here in Kansas City, Missouri.
----------------------------------------------------------
From Mike Thompson, Chief Meteorologist, Fox 4:
"Thursday, January 19, 2006  7:20 PM
 
What a day!  Pleasant Hill hit 64!  The record is 66 set way back in 1906!  But, what a difference 24 hours will make.
 
Tomorrow is an interesting situation. We have an open wave of energy headed our way. It is positively tilted (southwest to northeast orientation), which can accelerate the onset of precipitation. So, we could see some sprinkles of rain developing during the morning hours…possibly as early as 8 or 9 a.m.  As the rainfall intensifies, by late morning, some sleet may mix with the rain before it all changes over to snow after lunch.  There is a lot of dry air in place, and the saturating process will cause some extreme evaporative cooling, which will contribute to the rain/sleet mix. Temperatures will be above freezing, though, most of the day…so most of the snowfall will melt, except in some heavier bands of snowfall during the late afternoon.  That’s when we can expect some minor accumulations.  The combination of the sleet robbing snowfall, and the relatively warm temperatures should limit total snow accumulations to an inch or less over most of the area.  Some of you may see no accumulation at all, and in some spots the streets might get coated briefly…but overall the streets should remain primarily wet.  The only real ice issue will come into play overnight Friday night into Saturday morning, when the skies clear and temperatures drop into the mid 20s.  So Saturday morning could be a bit slippery (black ice) until about 9-10 a.m.  Full Sunshine Saturday will take away anything that does accumulate!

Sunday night and Monday present another semi-interesting setup for shallow cold air to slip in from the north, underneath a southern plains storm.  Weak cold advection coupled with a weak 700 millibar (10,000 foot) wave may create enough lift to form some very light snowfall.  Trace amounts are all I am talking about now, but, this will need to be watched.  If the southern track turns a bit to the north…we could be into a bit more accumulation!

Also, signs of a colder trend have been showing up in the Arctic.  At first, I think the cold intrusions will be very short lived. But after the 4th of February, we may get some brutally cold air start to head south toward us!  There are conflicting signals, however, in the Pacific that may limit the extent of the Arctic outbreaks. On the contrary, I have been studying the global patterns, and see plausible evidence that February may continue to present with above normal temperatures as well, albeit much closer to normal than January…so right now, I am a bit conflicted.  Give me a little more head scratching time on this problem, and I’ll get back to you."
----------------------------------------------------------
I can at least put the Forecast Discussion up for you.  I copied the whole thing so you could see the previous forecast and compare.  Also, I left the parts in about development in the west, since many of you have been following that.  This link will give you the KC metro map of cities for your bearings.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?site=EAX&map.x=130&map.y=155  Scroll down - it's on the right.
----------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR MUCH ADVERTISED MIXED BAG OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SALT LAKE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPSTREAM KICKER FORMING OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA SHOULD PUSH OUR STORM THROUGH QUICKLY TOMORROW. SO DESPITE
FORECAST CHARTS SUGGESTING STRONG JET COUPLING...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...THE FAST MOVING
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM SHOULD LIMIT SNOW TOTALS TO FOUR INCHES OR
LESS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. THE
THERMAL GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL BE TIGHT TOMORROW...AND
MODEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE NEVER COMPLETELY RELIABLE 24 HOURS OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE KANSAS CITY METRO WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RAIN
SNOW LINE ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME DURING THE MORNING...I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SLEET AT THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE.
THAT TRANSITION ZONE WILL LIKELY SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE STORM INGESTS COLDER AIR AND MOVES EAST.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE TOUGH WITH A STORM MOVING THIS FAST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG FORCING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE STORM THE FURTHER EAST
IT MOVES...SO I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT THE CORRIDOR FROM
CHILLICOTHE TO KIRKSVILLE COULD EXPERIENCE SIX HOURS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW. I DOUBT THAT ANY INDIVIDUAL HEAVY SNOW BAND
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ONE AREA FOR THAT ENTIRE SIX HOURS
SO...WITH A SNOW RATE AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR...UP TO FOUR INCHES
SEEMS LIKE A GOOD CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. FURTHER WEST TOWARD KANSAS CITY AND SAINT
JOSEPH...A SHORTER DURATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET WILL CUT
DOWN ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ONE TO TWO INCHES FROM THE NORTHLAND TO
THE IOWA BORDER IS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

KOCH

A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEVELOPING
A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH AND BRINGING IT SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATER NEXT WEEK THIS
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
SEGMENTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO
EJECT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW AND REMAIN DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. KEPT ONLY SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN TO REACH. OTHERWISE...THE COOLEST DAY
IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

315 AM THU...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
NEAR HILL CITY KANSAS...PLACING ALL OF MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITHIN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. PROFILER/VWP DATA DEPICTED AN
SPRING-LIKE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS NOSING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO WRN MO. THIS WAS KEEPING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI WELL MIXED...RESULTING IN A 25 DEGREE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S IN NW MO TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE BUTLER AND PAOLA AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS
THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED SEPARATELY
BELOW AND ARE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR TODAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
COMPACT COLD CORE SYSTEM DROPPING ACROSS INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS PROVIDED NO HELP IN THE WAY OF
CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...OFFERING A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. IN QUESTION IS NOT THE EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM
ITSELF...BUT ITS TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND TIMING AS IT RELATES TO THE
INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. FOR THIS WE
MUST LOOK TO THE UPSTREAM KICKER AND A SECONDARY JET STREAK IN THE
VICINITY OF 40N/140W. THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN REJECTED DUE TO POOR
INITIALIZATION OF SEVERAL KEY UPPER LEVEL WIND FEATURES (WHICH ARE
CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST). OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A DEEP...BUT MORE OPEN
WAVE SYSTEM. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FALL
INTO TWO SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT...WITH HALF THE MEMBERS STILL DIGGING
AND HOLDING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BACK AS THE INITIAL JET STREAK
BYPASSES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE UPSTREAM KICKER IS ALONG THE SAME LATITUDE...SO HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE OPGFS AND OUR EUROPEAN FRIENDS FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

THE RESULT IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
RAPID MOISTURE INCREASE AND REORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS
NOTED OVER THE SWRN STATES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL REACH THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. WITH A MORE OPEN WAVE SYSTEM...LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR BACKED AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL
LEND TO A WEAKER MOISTURE INFLUX AND FRONTOGENESIS...BUT PROGGED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE STILL PLENTY
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY. HAVE
RETAINED EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER SRN ZONES GIVEN FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES
EARLY ON.

TRANSITION ZONE OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE
TOMORROW AS MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES FROM PRECIPITATION.
ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...BUT WILL NOT GET CARRIED
AWAY AT THIS POINT. GENERAL TENDENCY WILL BE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
SLOWLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW
MIGRATES ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT OUT
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ADDITIONAL WRAPAROUND SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

AS IT STANDS...THE COMBINATION OF QPF...STORM DURATION...THERMAL
PROFILES AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM`S INITIAL BARK
WILL BE BIGGER THAN ITS BITE. THINK A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SWATH WILL BE
THE RESULT OVER NRN MO...SOMEWHERE ALONG A ST. JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE
LINE. GIVEN THE UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT...WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT PONDER ANY ADVISORIES BASED ON 12Z DATA.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING POINT TO A DIFFICULT FIRE WEATHER DAY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
TRUMAN LAKE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK AS DEEPER MIXING BEGINS TO TAP
INTO A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO ENSURE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THESE WINDS ARE SIMPLY DRAWING IN MORE DRY AIR FROM
AN ALREADY PARCHED SOUTHERN PLAINS SOURCE REGION...AND WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE MID 60S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP
BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CLINTON AREA. CLINTON RAWS
OBSERVATION SHOWS THAT CURRENT FUEL STICK MOISTURES ARE BELOW 8
PERCENT WHICH IS CRITICALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET...ALTHOUGH SUCH A PROGRAM DOES NOT
PRESENTLY EXIST FOR THE REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

$$

WFO EAX
----------------------------------------------------------

I'm sorry - I know that was exhausting.  I'll report in periodically tomorrow on the progress of the storm.

Okay - I couldn't leave you without stuff to look at.
1 and 2 are Surface Analyses valid tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening - look how the precip moves in.  3 is what it looks like right now - see the position of the Low and the baroclinic zone.  So close.  On 4 you can see the jet streak over KC - but not the left-exit region.  :(  On 5 watch the RH "get greener" - and it shows the dry air that's referenced in Mike Thompson's blog above.  And finally in 6 look at the 540 slush line - in a few of these boxes it sits right on top of KC!  Hence the sleet in Mike's forecast.

Now I feel better.  Goodnight.

Debbie
 

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6_Pres_Thck_Precip_Val_600_PM_Fri_Jan_20_2006.gif (140749 bytes)

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There's nothing happening here but cold rain. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006

.DISCUSSION..

THE PRECIPITATION BAND IS ORGANIZING FROM NORTH OF TOPEKA THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS HOUR. MESOSCALE BANDING IS OCCURRING IN
ZONE UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IN A
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI HAVE BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR...AND THERE IS
CONCERN THAT AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER NEAR 800MB MAY BRING SLEET
FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE IOWA BORDER. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
HAS YET TO COMPLETELY UNDERGO ALL THE EVAPORATIVE AND DYNAMIC
COOLING THAT IT WILL EXPERIENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 12Z MODELS ARE
COMING IN WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS (AROUND 800MB). SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD BY THIRTY OR FORTY
MILES...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM MOUND CITY TO
ALBANY TO PRINCETON. FOR KANSAS CITY...COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE IN
TIME THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AT ALL.

KOCH

Reply to this message

Yeah, if you look at the National Radar loop:

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/mosaic.loop/DS.p19r0/ar.us.conus.shtml

it looks like the bulk of the precip is staying north of you. I guess that's been the theme for your area so far this winter.

Reply to this message

Yep, sure has been.

Here's the loop from Topeka (the Pleasant Hill loop isn't working right now) - http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.ktwx.shtml - it looks like that bigger piece of precip in Kansas might try to wrap around and give us something this afternoon later or evening.  But the brunt is in Iowa and Wisconsin, and moving over Chicago right now.

Attached is the current surface analysis (1925Z) - the low is sitting right below us (my farmhouse would sit on top of the L).  It hasn't occluded yet - it's strengthening now with the upper midwest slated to receive the majority of the storm's force.

We have maintained 32-33 degrees here all day with intermittent rain.  Here's the current meteogram, but note that the airport (KCI) is up north, so they probably are experiencing the freezing rain and sleet.

1_Surf_Anal_Curr_19225Z_Jan_20_2006.gif (36156 bytes)

2_KC_Meteogram_422_pm_CST.gif (14696 bytes)

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Well, where it's not going is anywhere near here.  Here's the near-noon CST Forecast Discussion. 

1146 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. WHILE STILL
EXPECTING COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST JET THIS
AFTERNOON...OUR QUICK RISE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING THIS MORNING SEEMS TO WARRANT ADDING A CATEGORY TO
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TO FLATTEN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE
COLD AIR ALOFT.

We did, indeed, get to a high of 57 F, climbing of which has leveled off and remains at 57 now at 2:30 CST.  We are experiencing windy conditions and sunny skies.  See attached meteogram [1] for 2:00 pm yesterday up till 2:00 pm today (30 minutes ago) - note the windshift between 13Z and 14Z, and the subsequent gusts.  This is the front mentioned in the Discussion. 

CUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

245 AM...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI TODAY.  [There's our windy conditions.] 

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECTING
IN...SOUNDINGS SHOW WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO NEARLY 800MB
BY 18Z.  THIS WILL CREATE WARMER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  [Voila!] 

NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL BE IN THE PATH OF THE
HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT [2][300 mb winds attached] 

...WITH THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING A CORE OF
50KTS AT H8.  THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH A
WEAKENING GRADIENT BY 00Z.  WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR
NORTHEAST CORNER...EXPECTING AT LEAST 35 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
IN THE KIRK AREA.  CURRENT SURFACE MAP [3][Current Surf Obs shows 57 hi, 15 DP, clear w/ NW winds 20 kts] 

SHOWS STEADY/SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALREADY 10-15 MPH. SINCE WE WILL START
OUT RELATIVELY WARM THIS MORNING...HAVE RAISED HIGHS IN THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA.  THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH DURING THE
DAY [4&5][Surface Analysis] 

...WITH CAA DROPPING TEMPS AT H8 6 TO 8 DEGREES. NOT THAT MUCH
COOLER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS JUST A SMIDGE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE WARMING
SHOULD LEVEL OFF AROUND THE NOON HOUR.

WARM AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS US. SOMETHING TO WATCH ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WE CAN PULL BACK IN WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH.
THE MODELS ARE GETTING PRETTY STINGY WITH THE PRECIP ON THURSDAY [6&7][NAM valid 6:00 pm Thursday for Precip and 6:00 pm Wednesday for RH].

LATEST GFS RUN NEVER HAS THE SURFACE TROF ARRIVE.  AND EVEN THE NAM
BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH AND WEST .  HAVE LOWERED THE GOING
POPS A LITTLE. WILL LET DAY CREW GET MORE SPECIFIC WITH PLACEMENT
AND TIMING...ANOTHER MODEL RUN SHOULD MAKE PICTURE A LITTLE CLEARER.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM
[8&9].

I think I got them all in - a meteogram to show the wind shift and gusts fairly currently, 300 mb winds to show the upper-level jet mentioned in the Discussion, Surface Obs to show the temp/DP/winds currently, a Surface Analysis showing the position of the front at 6:00 pm this evening, and a Current Analysis showing the position of the front now, 2 NAM progs - one for Wed to show the RH that's lacking and one for Thurs to show the zero precip forecast, and 2 Surface Analyses to show the next frontal position on Saturday and Sunday, 6:00 am each.

Any forecast would be for the chance of precip Saturday/Sunday, which they have in the forecast at present.  The front passes right through us Saturday and they've added a snow mix change for Sunday, but the temps will be warm - 53 Sat and 46 Sun.  It's too far out right now - this will have to be monitored.

Debbie

P.S.  On the Surface Analysis, you can see the Michigan snow!

1_Meteogram_KC_2PM_Jan_23-2PM_Jan_24.gif (14053 bytes)

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9_Surf_Anal_Sun_5_am_Jan_29.gif (155493 bytes)

Reply to this message

Phil,
I'm really interested in that low tracking through Arizona/Colorado, as it's been slated by our locals as maybe giving us a chance of precip Sat/Sun.  From the #10 prog in your post, I see that it's holding alot of moisture, and I'm hoping it retains that and relieves some of the drought in West Texas and Oklahoma.  Unfortunately, the prog loops all have it petering out in 36-42 hrs as it gets to West Texas, with the vorticity moving north of KC along the isotherms.  Actually, AVN doesn't give it much of a chance of precip in West Texas.

NGM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGM_12z/ngmloopnew.html
ETA http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETA_12z/etaloopnew.html
AVN http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

I've attached 3 surface analyses so we can see the projected frontal boundary locations.  In the first one, valid 6:00 am CST Friday morning, shows the precip chance in southwest Texas (this is roughly the location of the Marfa Mountains).  The next two, Days 3 and 4, show the Low just west of KC at 6 am CST Saturday morning, then occluding east of us in Tennessee at 6 am CST Sunday morning.  This would put KC in the northern part of the warm sector Saturday morning (rain) and the wraparound section behind the occluding low on Sunday morning, which is why they put rain and snow shower chances for Sunday.

Still pretty far out to forecast, but it will be interesting to watch the low progress, and like I said, hopefully leave some of that precip on West Texas.  The prog in Phil's post shows a good chance predicted for that area.

1_Surf_Anal_Fri_6_am_Jan_27_2006.gif (174883 bytes)

2_Surf_Anal_Sat_6_am_Sat_Jan_28_2006.gif (154686 bytes)

3_Surf_anal_Sun_6_am_Jan_29_2006.gif (155187 bytes)

Reply to this message

I meant for them to be the loops - that's why I gave links instead of attachments.  Can you see the loops?

Lubbock, Texas has been without rain for roughly 3 months (I believe that's what I heard).  That's about the demarcation line between West Texas and the Panhandle (Dallas and Wichita Falls are North Texas).  East Texas (east of Dallas - Tyler, Terrell, Longview) has had rain in the past 3 months, albeit very little (they caught a little from the fronts that have formed precip east of the drought-line, per se).  The Panhandle and Oklahoma have suffered pretty heavily, with most of the wildfires occurring in Oklahoma.  However, the fire danger line a couple of weeks ago was drawn around North, East, and Central Texas (Dallas, Austin, Waco, East Texas).  But on the local NWS site for KC lately, the Fire Weather Watch coloring has been coming up into Central Missouri (see the beige below Butler and Clinton - at the end of last week, the boxes were bright pink and came all the way up to Sedalia).  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/

I was looking at West Texas because of Lubbock, but from the attached Drought Monitor, they've put Dallas in the heart of it.  [Glad I moved away from there now - don't miss that!]

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

1_Drought_Monitor_Jan_17_2006.gif (55742 bytes)

2_KC_Fire_Weather_Watch.gif (2504 bytes)

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Yeah, it's a fur piece across our state, for a fact.  I was born and raised in North Dallas (Love Field).  Spent a number of young adult years in Arlington.

One thing I've heard from Amarilloans is that Amarillo sits on the caprock, giving it a higher elevation, and that whatever comes out of Colorado off the Rockies will affect Amarillo - they get much more snow than the rest of the state (Panhandle and West Texas).

Amarillo covers a land area of 227.4 sq km (87.8 sq mi), with a mean elevation of 1123 m (3683 ft). http://www.thecityofamarillo.com//

As compared to Dallas [Elevation: 463 feet. County: Dallas. Land area:
342.5 square miles.] and Kansas City, MO [Elevation: 882 feet. County: Jackson.
Land area: 313.5 square miles]

Wow - look at the difference!!!! 

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That's quite a line of storms in Mississippi.

Dennis, where do you live again?  It was good to see the DFW metroplex mentioned - I would be homesick, except that's the worst Urban Heat Island this side of NYC.  :P

The storms have moved out of Mississippi, as has the frontal boundary.  Attached is the current radar (from about 10 minutes ago) from Tallahassee, Florida (I had to hunt for the rain reflectivity).  Also attached is the current surface analysis (valid 7:00 am EST this morning) showing the placement of the frontal boundary.

The third image attached is the NWS national radar showing the heaviest storms over the SE tip of LA/MS (Katrina Land).  Here's the loop to this radar image which shows the baroclinic storms petering out along the Gulf states, the classic comma moving on up around the eastern Great Lakes and NE regions, and some storms erupting in Louisiana behind it all.  http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/mosaic.loop/DS.p19r0/ar.us.conus.shtml 

The Convective Outlook echoes what we're seeing in their 10:29 CST posting for today:

...SERN STATES/N FL...
  PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS MOVED WELL E OF COLD FRONT.  IT
  SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SE TODAY.  LIMITED
  INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPR FORCING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF ASSOCIATED
  THUNDER ISOLATED.  THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY REJUVENATE SOMEWHAT LATER
  TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY FROM THE NRN GULF ENE ACROSS NRN FL/S GA AND
  PERHAPS SRN SC AS AMPLIFICATION OF UPSTREAM TROUGH ENHANCES WARM
  ADVECTION ACROSS REGION.
   
  FARTHER W...AN AREA OF NEW CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER MAY DEVELOP
  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF LA/MS...IN ZONE OF
  INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CLOSER TO APPROACHING TROUGH. 
  LIMITED MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE THREAT DESPITE
  PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


And that explains the reflectivity firing up in LA behind the frontal convective bands.

 

1_KTLH_Radar_1134_am_EST_Jan_29_2006.png (53724 bytes)

2_Curr_Surf_Anal_700_am_EST_Jan_29_2006.gif (36096 bytes)

3_NWS_Natl_Radar_1120_am_Jan_29_2006.gif (15018 bytes)

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Robert,
You've hit on something here.  As of 2:49 CST, the MD says they're looking at possibly extending/issuing a new watch for further east, south, and northeast up into the Carolinas.  Shear is favorable, mid-level jet max moving southeastward toward the southern Atlantic, and a moist boundary layer is helping to build instability.  Attached (1) is a sounding from Tallahassee, FL valid 1200 UTC, which shows the shear and the moist boundary layer.  You can see the jet max at 500 mb on attachment (2). 

Link to MD #0091:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0091.html

The progs for 1200 UTC all point to some activity in the nxt 12-18 hours, with the NGM bringing the vort max right on top of the area in 18, and the ETA and AVN bringing it slightly north of the southern third of AL and GA.  All three bring RH through but immediately followed by dry air.  And all three bring precip for roughly the same parameters.

NGM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGM_12z/ngmloopnew.html

ETA http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETA_12z/etaloopnew.html

AVN http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

I attached the loops rather than the images.

Debbie

 

1_Skew_T_TLH_Jan_30_2006.gif (27618 bytes)

2_500_mb_Jet_Max_Jan_30_2006.gif (37031 bytes)

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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ewx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

The projected storms for Texas/Louisiana are beginning to fire up around Austin and San Antonio.  The attached radar (1) for Austin didn't save well, so the link is above.  You can see the showers on the meteogram for San Antonio (4), as well. 

The Surface Analysis (2) shows the area in question on the warm front side of the low pressure system moving through, with the Current Analysis (3) showing the area slated for possible thunderstorm activity.  However, this is further south than anticipated in yesterday's analyses. 

Here are the links to the 1200Z progs from the e-wall:
NGM - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGM_12z/ngmloopnew.html
ETA - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETA_12z/etaloopnew.html
AVN - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

The NGM and ETA both bring the vort max and precip in this afternoon, and the humidity climbs as the rain totals increase.  The AVN is really slow in bringing the low over into Texas (it's behind already, thus I don't think we can consider it); however, once it gets there, look at the totals it brings, albeit further north than than NGM and ETA (and current readings) show.

I also notice that the NGM and the ETA have the low gaining precip intensity and heading across the southeast and up the seaboard.  However, it appears the low becomes vertically stacked while still in Texas.

Fodder for discussion:  what increases the precip as it travels up the seaboard?
 

1_Austin_Radar_Feb_1_2006_1515_UTC.gif (7843 bytes)

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4_Meteogram_San_Antonio_1500Z_Jan_31-Feb_1_2006.gif (14298 bytes)

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Well, there's more.  This from the current SPC MD (with a 15% slgt risk for severe tstorms):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP SW TO WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
  SUPERCELLS...AND HODOGRAPHS WILL BE ENLARGED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
  NEAR WARM FRONT OVER SE TX AND THE UPR TX GULF CST.  THUS...
  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOTH HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  THE SEVERE
  THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E/NE INTO SRN LA BY EARLY TONIGHT. FAR SRN
  TRACK OF UPR VORT AND EXISTING COOL AIR MASS OVER THE N CNTRL GULF
  SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT THE TX STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
  MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. 

What are hodographs? And is it painful for them to be enlarged?

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Mornin', Robert (except it's 12:48 pm here).

I understand from all the torrential rains in Florida yesterday that the roof on a Bed, Bath and Beyond collapsed, and the whole strip mall was evacuated hurriedly.  Seems all employees were accounted for, with only one injured.

At present, TWC is gearing up for a major snowstorm in the Great Lakes region.  Attached is a current surface analysis, and meteograms for KIND, KTDZ and KDTW (Indianapolis, Toledo and Detroit) where the rain has already changed over to snow.  The surface analysis really shows the deepeing low of 995 mb.

And from MD #122 showing the rain changeover to snow for today through this afternoon:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0122.html

1209 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006
   
  AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI
   
  CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
  VALID 041809Z - 042245Z
   
  PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
  WESTERN/CENTRAL OH AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...WITH MDT/PERHAPS LOCALLY
  HEAVY WET SNOW DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES MAY
  REACH 1 IN/HR AFTER 21Z.
   
  MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
  REGION...WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
  IN VICINITY OF LAKE HURON AND DEEPENING 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
  NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER AT 18Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN INITIALLY EXISTS ACROSS
  MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MI/CENTRAL OH AT MIDDAY...COMPACTING THERMAL
  FIELDS ON PERIPHERY OF EARLY-OCCLUDING CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT A
  RELATIVELY QUICK CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
  TREND IN AVAILABLE TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM NEAR DETROIT/DAYTON...THIS
  SCENARIO APPEARS WELL DEPICTED VIA 15Z RUC/12Z NAM FORECAST VERTICAL
  PROFILES AND 09Z SREF CONSENSUS...WITH A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW LIKELY
  BY 21Z FOR A DETROIT-TOLEDO-FINDLAY-COLUMBUS CORRIDOR. MID LEVEL
  /600-800 MB/ FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED BY THE
  GFS AND RUC/ IN PRESENCE OF WEAK STATIC STABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
  FOR SSW-NNE BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
  ..GUYER.. 02/04/2006

At first they (TWC) mentioned possible blizzard conditions by this afternoon, but have since changed their tune on that one. 

1_Surf_Anal_1638Z_Feb_4_2006.gif (37549 bytes)

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Hey, Frank - nice setup. 

Right now Lakes Erie and Ontario are experiencing lake effect snows - see the NE Surface Plot (attachment 7) that clearly shows the parallel winds blowing NE across the lakes (right box) and the precip bands (upper left box).

Other than that, the SE is the place to watch this afternoon, I think.  Attachments 1-6 deal with this area.

You can see on the Current Surface Analysis (attachment 1) the location of the Low over Louisiana, as noted in the Day 1 Convective Outlook Discussion linked above.  This Low is set to intensify as it moves NE, and the precip is occurring in northern MS, AL, GA and southern TN (attachment 8).  Attachment 3 shows the upper level winds (the flow is coming through nicely right across this region) and attachment 4 shows the lower level winds at 850 mb coming in strongly off the Gulf, bringing alot of moisture to the mix.  Surface Obs (attachment 5) show the high dew points in the Gulf region, with surface winds coming in from the Gulf in the warm sector and the NW winds coming down from the cold sector behind the baroclinic zone.  And attachment 6 is where we can see the 500 mb trough positively tilted across the Texas Panhandle.

And one last item is the Forecast Surface Analysis (attachment 2) which shows the precip moving eastward by this evening leaving a stray thunderstorm in LA behind the frontal boundary.

I wanted to show the slush line, but the e-wall seems to be having a problem accessing data right now.

Debbie

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I'll take that Nebraska Low.  I've attached the Forecast Surface Analyses for 12 and 24 hours which show the Low bringing snow and thundersnow down the Plains and just skirting by KC, MO.

I've also attached the eWall NGM, ETA and AVN prog stills for 24 hours (18 hours for the AVN since the 24 hour was incomplete).  These show the vorticity moving in on the northwest flow, the Low moving over Kansas/Missouri, and the precip starting to trace up over the Missouri area.  We just don't have much moisture already for it to work with (see RH for the moisture it brings in).

There is no discussion, convective or mesoscale, regarding this Low.  There may be later, as it goes on in the prog loop to bring more snow/thundersnow possibilities to the southeast.

Debbie

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5_AVN_18hr_prog_V_12am_Feb_8_2006.gif (109589 bytes)

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I'm going to zero in on the snow occurring as we speak in far northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri.  [We have a cabin in far northern Arkansas just over the Missouri border.]

This is so exciting watching these things as they happen!

The MD #129 is attached rather than linked, so I can save it.  The gist is that snow is expected/occurring in northern AR/southern MO today due to a frontal boundary and short-wave trough, moisture convergence, frontogenetic forcing, and a surface wet bulb zero line running through the state of AR.

Illustrations:
Current Surface Analysis (1) shows the location of the front and low, and the snow symbol in AR. 
300 mb winds (2) show the LLJ, and 850 mb winds (4) show the northwest flow.
The 500 mb trough can be seen on (3).
The 1h Composite Radar shows the precip inundating AR, LA, TX.
The eWall Progs (6) (7) (8) show the RH in relation to the forcing for ascent, as well as precip totals - note that the models are in fair agreement on placement and amount.
And number 9 (number 9, number 9) is the temp profile for earlier this morning (wee hours) showing the surface 0 degree isotherm in the AR area.  There is a bit of a mix of precip under the snow, in a small band from north-central AR to eastern AR (saw it on TWC, can't attach it).

You'll have to read the MD to follow my illustrations. 

Debbie
 

1_Curr_Surf_Anal_1630Z_Feb_10_2006.gif (37862 bytes)

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3_500_mb_Trough_Feb_10_2006.gif (31515 bytes)

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9_eWall_6_h_Temp_Profile_V_6Z_Feb_10_2006.gif (86240 bytes)

Mesoscale_Discussion_129_2-10-06.doc (60928 bytes)

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Looks like today the freezing rain threat has moved east into the Ohio Valley. See Surface Analysis (1) for today, as well as Current Surface Analysis for 15Z (2) today.

Here is the excerpt from the Convective Outlook for the Ohio Valley: 

1028 AM CST WED MAR 01 2006
   
  VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
   
  ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
  ...OH VALLEY AREA...
   
  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
  ESEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SLY
  LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
  TN AND OH VALLEYS. RESULTING THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
  DESTABILIZATION WITH MARGINAL MUCAPE POSSIBLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
  WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
  LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY N
  OF E-W BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE OH
  VALLEY. 

You can see the trough extending from Low to Low on the attached 12 hr Forecast Surface Analysis for 1635Z today (3).  The "slush line" (4) (0 degree C isotherm) is running through the affected area, lowering in latitude slightly as it lowers in altitude, showing that warmer layer for the snow to melt through, but at 2m sufficiently cold to freeze the rain on contact.

The 300 mb winds (5) show the Ohio Valley in the right entrance region of the jet streak, allowing for divergence aloft to foster convection.  I haven't been impressed with the 850 mb wind charts, as the models don't appear to show the LLJ picking up over this region.  However, the 850 mb Analysis (6) from the Mesoanalysis Pages shows the WAA coming in on those winds from the SW and WSW.  The maps for Theta-e and MUCAPE didn't show me anything yet, though.





 

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6_850_mb_Analysis_Mar_1_2006.gif (35162 bytes)

I'll try.

The attached document is a copy of all the SPC Convective Outlooks from yesterday evening through early this morning, as well as our local NWS Forecast Discussion.  I want to focus on the possibility of severe storms for later this afternoon/evening in the KC forecast area.  Here is the excerpt from the local NWS in Pleasant Hill, MO:

FOR TODAY I KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE FEEDING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRONT. BOOSTED TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE ANY
STORMS THAT SPARK IN KANSAS A GOOD GROUNDING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE SOME DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY
IN UNDER THE 850MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SO THOUGHTS ARE THAT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 WILL WARRANT ONLY CHANCE POPS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH...ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND MAKE IT INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER.

SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT INTO THE AREA BY THE
EVENING HOURS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT GETS GOING TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL POPS TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER CERTAINLY IS A POSSIBILITY...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

Okay, Forecaster Cutter focuses on theta-e advection, moisture, 850 mb conditions, and hail in those two paragraphs.  I have attached some images related to those areas (pardon that they're not numbered, but I have in mind using them if we do have a good outbreak this evening).  Before we get into the images, I've also attached the Forecast Surface Analysis for today, as well as the Forecast Fronts for 12 hrs and 24 hrs - we want to focus on the 24 hr one, since it forecasts for 6:00 pm CST this evening. 
I focused on two areas:  east-central Kansas and central Missouri.  I'll tell you why in a minute.  Notice where the frontal boundaries are located.  The baroclinic zone of the cold front is just on and behind the east-central Kansas position, and the central Missouri position is under the warm front.

There isn't much theta-e illustrated on the attached graphic, but what's there is mostly in the Kansas area.  The moisture convergence on the two attached graphics also show the most being in the Kansas area.  The 850 mb Analysis chart shows dewpoints encompassing more of Missouri, though there is a pretty tight dewpoint gradient just north of the east-central Kansas area.  The 850 WAA and winds is favorable for both locations. 

Now for the extras.  If I'm reading it right, the deep moisture convergence (red lines) is situated between the two areas of concern, with convergence ongoing in the areas cited.  I need to read up on how to interpret this, so will leave it for others to add onto (fodder for discussion).

I attached a chart of hail parameters, though we haven't covered it in the lessons yet.  It clearly shows areas of 200 marked in red - I'm thinking these are favorable areas for hail to reach the ground?  If so, then it covers the two referenced areas fairly well.

MUCAPE shows values of 1500 in both areas, but on SB-LI-CINH, lifted indices show values only in the Kansas area.  And as a final note, the Supercell Composite addresses only the Kansas area, as well. 

What I didn't attach were all the numerous other graphics for various levels, RH, AbsV, dewpoints, temps, shear, QPF (favored MO), lapse rates, SLP, etc.  I looked at all of these, however, and compared KS vs. MO.  Without going into detail, most of these graphics favored activity developing in the Kansas area.

THEREFORE, based on all of that, my personal forecast is for some strong storms to develop around the Topeka area and north in the afternoon, with a few isolated cells perhaps developing later in the Missouri area from the state line toward central MO.  Any line of storms will move SW to NE with the 850 mb and 300 mb winds (SW and W, respectively). 

Conclusion:  The KC metro area will most likely experience some strong storms, with heavy rains and some small hail possible this afternoon through this evening.

Is that what you were talking about, David?  Now I know what forecasters must feel like - it feels like going out on a limb and trying to stand in the wind! 

 

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Ep2-Theta-E_Adv_14Z_Mar_8_2006.gif (26186 bytes)

And I must add, since I've been out of commission working through these images and on this reply, they've issued a tornado watch for our area, which encompasses the upper portion of both of my areas of concern and north to include the KC metro area.  Also, MD #188 puts the reasoning behind this - I glanced before replying here, but already see things I missed that warranted action on their part.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0188.html

I'll try to address that, Steve.  First I want to say that many of the factors I cited have changed from 14Z to 19Z.  Where I saw no values or readings in Missouri earlier, I now see that many variables on a number of the graphics have moved over into Missouri (some have grown to include that area, and some have moved over to that area).  Again I'll attach theta-e/advection, moisture convergence, 850 mb conditions (analysis and WAA/winds), MUCAPE, SB LI-CINH, and Supercell, plus Temp/Td/Winds and Significant Tornado.

Man, things changed so fast!  The theta-e went from nothing to a value of 20 just SSW of KC.  Impressive!  We're currently sitting at 73 degrees F, and the dewpoints have climbed this afternoon to a reading of 62 F now.  The Deep Moisture Convection has moved out of Kansas and into Missouri and northern Arkansas, with readings of 2-4-6 east and northeast of KC - I'm looking at this as a part of the setup for later this evening. The hail parameters have changed to a 200 reading more concentrated on the KC area (just to the northwest of the city).  Surface moisture convergence now has a reading of 10 over the city and 15 where the 200 hail parameter reading is located, with a mixing ratio of 11 around the forecast area.  On the T-Td-Winds chart, look at that reading of 80 degrees F in Kansas just outside the western edge of the 200 hail parameter/15 smc area!  Dewpoints are still climbing, as they're already showing higher than on this chart at 19Z.  Lifted indices of -4 in that same area, and just over the state line southeast of KC in MO show a shift from only in Kansas earlier.  That's promising for tornadogenesis. MUCAPE of 1500 in that same area northwest of KC and 1000 in the general forecast area look good for severe tstorm development. 

The Supercell Composite noticeably moved over onto the KC area, showing readings of 4 and 6 - really want to know what that means, but see it as favorable for supercell development.  And last, the Significant Tornado graphic has moved the readings and shaded area way over to include the KC area and a good portion of Missouri - don't know yet what these readings mean, either, but they must be favorable - and therein lies the Tornado Watch Box.

As to why a TDWatch was issued instead of a STstormWatch, I'm thinking it's because they already see the favorable conditions for possible tornadoes to develop later (the watch lasts until 8:00 pm CST), but severe tstorm watches won't go out until some storms have formed and show rapid development toward severity.

How's that?

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Ep2-Theta-E_Adv_19Z_Mar_8_2006.gif (28088 bytes)

And of course it's changed already - our TD watch is out.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/

This could drive one crazy ...

And now the watch that included northwestern Arkansas is gone.  Only remaining watch is in north Texas - so we go back and look at all the stuff again for that area ... 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
 

Reasoning for the North Texas focus - Wichita Falls seems to be in the middle of this one.  On all the attached graphics, note that Wichita Falls is either in the bullseye or just east of it.  They are also just east of the dry line (graphic not included).

(My apologies for attaching so many files - 3 times now - but looking at these rapidly changing graphics that indicate such rapidly changing conditions, plus the fact that this is the first real weather we've had in so long and it's so exciting to be awake again, have made me a bit ... overanxious.)

1-Theta-E_Adv_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (34198 bytes)

10-Supercell_Comp_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (20856 bytes)

11-Sig_Tornado_20Z_mar_8_2006_TX.gif (26087 bytes)

2-850_mb_Anal_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (35139 bytes)

3-SBCAPE-CIN_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (42664 bytes)

4-100_mb_MLCAPE_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (41662 bytes)

5-MUCAPE_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (29985 bytes)

6-SB_LI-CINH_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (30723 bytes)

7-3km_CAPE_Sfc_Vort_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (35928 bytes)

8-Low_Level_Lapse_Rates_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (25931 bytes)

9-Eff_Shear_20Z_Mar_8_2006_TX.gif (34797 bytes)

The good news is that the storm system that brought all the severe weather over the Midwest and Southeast for the past few days is finally exiting the east coast into the Atlantic.  The attached Current Surface Analysis for 15Z today shows the position of the low, with a trough extending from the center down across the Great Lakes.

The lake-effect snow occurring east of Lakes Erie and Ontario appears to be tapering off, with snow in Pennsylvania and New York.  The attached 500 mb plot from the eWall shows mid-level jet winds from the southwest blowing in across this area.  The third attached image shows the strong 300mb jet aligned with these mid-level winds.  I look for precip to taper off this evening/overnight with the low exiting the region.

California has a pretty good rain cell over the San Fernando Valley right now.  There is a tornado warning just issued for Sacramento, San Joaquin and Solano counties - a tornado has been indicated by Doppler near the city of Walnut Grove.  See attached MD #293 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0293.html  - the TW has not been posted on SPC yet (I got it from TWC).  It will be intersting to see how this pans out when it reaches the Midwest.  The attached AVN prog loop http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html shows the vort max for this low moving over the upper Midwest; however, keep the loop going and watch the deep trough form and bring massive precip into the weekend and next week.  I know that's too far to forecast properly, but isn't it exciting to watch?!  The NGM and ETA show the trough forming, as well, though they don't go out as far to show its possible development.

Attached 4, 5 and 6 are some areal radar stills for the southeast, northeast, and California.  We should keep a watch on that California tornado. 

1_Curr_Surf_Anal_1500Z_Mar_14_2006.gif (186575 bytes)

2_500_mb_Plot_12Z_Mar_14_2006.gif (64299 bytes)

3_300_mb_Jet_18Z_Mar_14_2006.gif (60643 bytes)

4_Southeast_Radar_Still_Mar_14_2006.gif (76166 bytes)

5_Northeast_Radar_Still_Mar_14_2006.gif (115597 bytes)

6_California_Radar_Still_Mar_14_2006.gif (76697 bytes)

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It's definitely set up for possible severe activity this afternoon.  The radar shows the precip in central Kansas developing and moving ever closer to the KC area as the morning progresses.

There are also storms firing up and eliciting warning boxes in Oklahoma right now.

The synoptic setup is warm Gulf air, a dry line ahead of a low pressure frontal boundary, and cold air aloft coming in on a strong jet.  The attached Composite Map shows this set up. 

The local NWS Pleasant Hill Forecast Discussion gives a lovely overview of this synoptic setup and the expectations for later on this afternoon and this evening.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=eax&product=AFD&issuedby=eax&glossary=1

And the MD 361 gives the tornadic overview - I need to read it more closely, but upon a glance I saw that it mentions LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0361.html 

When Dr. Greg Forbes gets involved, things always promise to get exciting.  He has already come on TWC to show the synoptic set up and its similarities to the March 12th Outbreak.  Tornado warning just issued for Central Kansas, NE Ellsworth County and NW Saline County. 

Convective Outlook for Day 1:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630_prt.html

1_CompMap_Overlay_850mbWAA-500mbHtAbV-300mbWinds_17Z_Mar_30_2006.bmp (2577462 bytes)

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Okay, I'm back.  I see everyone waited for me.  :)

I've attached the Forecast Surface Analysis for today, along with the 12Z Current Surface Analysis and 24 hr Forecast Surface Analysis valid at 7:00 pm CDT this evening.

The low pressure system is exiting the CONUS in the northeast, though still bringing showers to Sarah in Maine.  That's about the longest trailing front I've ever seen, and it's about to exit the tip of Florida.  High pressure is dominiting the center of the country at present, though I want to point out the area of thunderstorms in central Texas.  Let's take a look at that:  Looking at the SPC Comp Maps, there's a 400 helicity value in this area, with 45-50 kt shear, a bit of 850 mb WAA coming up from Mexico (where the dewpoints are higher than in Texas right now), and a westerly 300 mb flow all converging over this area.  Anyone want to take this up further?

By 7:00 pm CDT this evening, the northeast exiting low is bringing some snow to northeast Canada and Maine, and the warm front is spreading across central Texas.  Look at the west coast - rain, rain, rain, and snow in the higher elevations.  I encourage you to look at the loops on the eWall for ETA http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETA_12z/etaloopnew.html and for NGM http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGM_12z/ngmloopnew.html (AVN is in the process of updating http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html).  This is a potent low pressure system - it becomes a closed low at 30-36 hours, and brings ample precip to the midwest right about drive time for us conference attendees.  This moves into the Ohio Valley Friday (just in time for our own convergence).  I encourage someone to take up this thread and provide more in depth images for this storm system.

Look at this loop for the 500 mb Ensemble Forecast - I wanted to point out the huge trough and vort max that travels across the country.  http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF500US_9z/srefloop.html

Two things in closing, then ya'll take up the talking stick:
1. There's heavy flooding ongoing in North Dakota and Minnesota on the Red River (Grand Forks and Fargo) and the Wild Rice River (Abercrombie).  The expected crest of the Red River is 39' (or at least, that's what they have sandbagged for).  I got this from a live report from Moorehead, MN on TWC.  And more precip coming.

2. Updated storm reports are available at SPC's Storm Reports site.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060402_rpts.html  We're up to 819 total storm reports, 64 tornado reports.  I'll let Phil update us on the post mortem field analysis - the Memphis NWS site has an updated report with storm photos, but field analysis is still ongoing.

1_Fcst_Surf_Anal_April_4_2006.gif (141675 bytes)

2_Curr_Surf_Anal_12Z_April_4_2006.gif (185373 bytes)

3_24_hr_Fcst_Surf_Anal_00Z_April_5_2006.gif (181268 bytes)

Hey, Mike. 

There is a good setup for tstorms this afternoon here in the KS/MO area, but our dewpoints are a concern - and notice the low RH on the prog you attached.

Look at the low dewpoints as of this morning at 7:00 am CDT (1).  It's currently 71 F with a dewpoint of 53 F.  16Z Dewpoints (2 & 5) are still low, though climbing.  Besides surface obs and dewpoint, I've attached the 850 mb WAA and 300 mb winds compmaps (3 & 4) - we have a stiff wind at 20-30 mph with higher gusts. 

The slight risk area is in Nebraska/Iowa, but the numbers are tending to favor the southwestern Wisconsin area.  See the attached MUCAPE-LPL Hgt, Effective Shear, Effective SR Helicity, LCL-LFC RH, and the Supercell Comp Parameter for 16Z - all the higher values are lined up on the southwestern corner of Wisconsin.  The LI for this area is a -2, with mid-level lapse rates of 8.5. 

All of that aside, there are spotty areas of convection developing right now - a line of rain from Texas up to central Kansas, Nebraska/Iowa border, Colorado/Nebraska border, and a line forming to the northwest of the targeted Wisconsin area outlined above.  Oh, yes, and a little piece east of the KC metro area.
See Base Reflectivity attached (11).

10_LCL-LFC_RH_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (25922 bytes)

11_Base_Reflectivity_1610Z_April_11_2006.gif (29241 bytes)

1_Curr_Surf_Anal_12Z_April_11_2006.gif (36731 bytes)

2_CompMap_Surf_Obs_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (29893 bytes)

3_850_mb_WAA-Winds_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (29819 bytes)

4_CompMap_300_mb_Winds_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (42990 bytes)

5_CompMap_Dewpoint_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (28268 bytes)

6_Supercell_Comp_Parameter_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (16788 bytes)

7_MUCAPE_LPL_Hgt_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (24755 bytes)

8_Eff_Shear_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (25579 bytes)

9_Eff_SR_Helicity_16Z_April_11_2006.gif (17626 bytes)

I think with MLCAPE of 3000 j/kg, CIN of -50, and LI of -9 in the central Missouri area, the Tornado Watch http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0199.html issued for this area and points north, east and south (alot of east) is well warranted.  Mark's right, though - we don't have a lot of jet aloft right now.  But look at the 850 mb WAA - and the dewpoints are quite juicy!

MD#543 thinks stronger winds aloft/ascent will develop soon (I was about to say around 4 this afternoon, but it's now 4:52 CST!).  Here's their consensus:

GIVEN INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL EXIST BY LATE AFTN.  COUPLED WITH
  2000-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE...STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY GROW INTO
  SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO
  WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN A NARROW ZONE VCNTY THE WARM FRONT
  IN THE CHILLICOTHE-COLUMBIA-ST. LOUIS ZONE.  TSTMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
  GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY EARLY/MID-EVENING AND DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD
  ALONG THE WARM FRONT TOWARD THE LWR OH/MID-MS VLY.

Watch out, Tennessee -- again.

Notice the MLCAPE they're looking at -- it seems to have jumped up a notch since they issued this MD.

The Current Surface Analysis from 18Z (all the other attachments are from 21Z) shows the position of the front - we're in the 'armpit' or the triangle of the warm front, dry line, and cold frontal boundary.

1_100_mb_MLCAPE-CIN_21Z_4-18-06.gif (41977 bytes)

2_LI_21Z_04-18-06.gif (33060 bytes)

3_Curr_Surf_Anal_18Z_04-18-06.gif (36038 bytes)

4_Theta-e_21Z_04-18-06.gif (36176 bytes)

5_Dewpt_Comp_21Z_04-18-06.gif (30628 bytes)

6_850_mb_WAA_21Z_04-18-06.gif (29174 bytes)

The far southeast is experiencing the last of that strong cold front that's been leaving its mark across the country all week (see 6 Curr Surf Anal 15Z).  It just started raining in Atlanta (info courtesy of TWC!).  MD #669 from the SPC says they're monitoring the situation for the possibility of needing a WW, as a "more vigorous cluster of storms" is developing in the Alabama/Florida coastal region. 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0669.html

The MD mentions high dew points (upper 60s), fairly high MLCAPE (1000 j/kg), and about 2" of precipitable water (1.7-1.8), so I've attached those charts for 16Z.  The Hail Parameter chart doesn't show much potential for hail due to low CAPE and lack of shear vectors in the Florida Panhandle. 

Last is an image of the current 1622Z radar showing the cluster of storms in Alabama/Florida and over the Gulf.  Current radar shows little movement of this cluster to the east. 

You can also see the line of storms west of Atlanta.  CAPE here is at about 100 as you move east, with shear at 45 knots on the Hail Parameter. MLCAPE of 500 and  1.4 precip water indicates to me that the Florida Panhandle will experience more heavy rain, with the more severe potential (hail and damaging winds) in northern-central Georgia and North and South Carolina. 

1_Reg_Surf_Plot_16Z_April_26_2006.gif (34720 bytes)

2_MLCAPE-CIN_16Z_April_26_2006.gif (41154 bytes)

3_Precip_Water_16Z_April_26_2006.gif (27078 bytes)

4_Hail_Parameter_16Z_April_26_2006.gif (28735 bytes)

5_Base_Ref_1622Z_April_26_2006.gif (50572 bytes)

6_Curr_Surf_Anal_15Z_April_26_2006.gif (36727 bytes)

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