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| The track of Helene is a more uncertain
after 48 hours. As of 5 PM the NHC notes that the models are in a
little better agreement on the track than they were before. I have
attached an image of some computer models track for Helene. On the e-wall the GFS shows Helene slowing down around 72 hours. NOGAPS shows the storm slowing significantly in 72 hours and turning southward while weakening. The CMC however keeps Helene moving east-northeast. I think the track will remain generally east-northeast with some slow down in forward speed in 72 hours. Then it looks that Helene will resume a quicker east-northeast motion. A reason for the slower motion in forward speed is that Helene will be out of reach of stronger westerlies to its north. This will also mean that Helene will lose quite a bit of its baroclinic energy. The NHC also mentions the loss of some baroclinic energy in their 5 PM discussion. There is an interesting water vapor loop at: (http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullwv.html). In the loop you can see Helene's increased interaction with the trough, and its extratropical transition. Model_forecasts.gif |
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| Nice obs, Brandon. Since the models are
coming into better consensus, looks like Ireland and the British Isles
may get a big gale on Wednesday. I attached forecasts for Wednesday
morning from the CMC for Europe (from our wonderful e-wall), and one
from the Meteorological Office of the UK. Here's a link to the UK
office's complete prog maps out to 132 hours: http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm Pretty cool stuff.
CMC_forecast_for_2006-09-27_1200_Europe.gif
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| Thanks Philip! The latest from the NHC indicates that Helene is hanging on to tropical characteristics. We can see this on an ASMU image from CIMMS (attachment), the image shows that the system still has a warm core. The NHC also notes that they have slowed their track slightly along with a slight southward shift. The NHC set the intensity at 75 knots. The QUIKSCAT image (attached) show some vectors near 70 knots which supports the intensity, but be careful about the black barbs on the image. Helene_amsua_ch7.gif Helene_QuikScat.bmp |
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| Nice use of AMSU, Brandon. | |
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| You know, when I see so many black-flagged observations on QuikSCAT images, I think of an insecticide with the same name. :-) | |
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| LOL...not a Nayscar fan eh Lee :) | |
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| Thanks for using Penn State's European e-wall, Phil. I really like that site. | |
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| Oh you're welcome Lee. I liked it from the moment I saw it. The graphics and satellite presentations are beautiful - very nicely done. | |
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| Thanks Brandon. I think the model
tracks at Colorado State (see attached) are superior to Weather
Underground, which is where I'm guessing you got your attachment.
early2.png |
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| Hi Lee. I did get those tracks from Weather Underground. I agree with you that model tracks from Colorado State are better. | |
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| No biggie. | |