MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...ERN OK...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL        VALID 121729Z - 121930Z

SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE FROM ERN KS TO CNTRL OK. DAMAGING TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS INITIATE AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A DRYLINE ORIENTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM SCNTRL KS TO SOUTHWEST OK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS VERY WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX NOSES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILERS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND ERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS

   ..BROYLES.. 03/12/2006

       ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

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