|George R. Kasica
METEO 410 Portfolio #1: Lessons Learned
A lesson learned in this first week of forecasting is that forecast timing is everything.
The perfect example was the first day of the forecast period and the missed precipitation forecast. If I had a better feel and knowledge of the timing of the arrival of the departure of the precipitation I would have had much better results for the first day's forecast.
Below is a chart of the expected precipitation from the 12Z NGM and ETA FOUS forecasts for February 22nd's forecast period highlighted in bright green and the 6 hour period immediately following it in bright red. As you can see the forecast for the period is for anywhere from 0.19" to 0.89" of precipitation. I chose to go with a lower average number of 0.30" of precipitation. The actual amount received was in fact only 0.13" as shown by the METARs below, even farther below than my lowered estimate.
Looking at the next precipitation total from 0853Z that day we can see that the site in fact received another 0.14" of precipitation in the 3 hours following the end of the forecast period, bringing the total to 0.27", or very close to my predicted amount of 0.30". So had I been more careful in the timing of my precipitation forecast I may have been more accurate in the actual total.
For my first week of forecasting it was made
very clear that it is critical to get not only the amounts of precipitation
correct but the time of the arrival. Hopefully as the class progresses I can
gain more experience in forecasting and become a better judge of the timing
of the precipitation forecasts through more careful study and use of the
KSAT 231753Z 03012KT 10SM -RA BKN044 OVC060 06/02 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP229 P0000 60001 T00610017 10061 20044 50008 KSAT 232353Z 01008KT 10SM BKN040 OVC050 06/01 A3020 RMK AO2 RAB2255E14 SLP220 P0000 60001 T00610011 10072 20056 53001 KSAT 240553Z 32003KT 4SM RA BR OVC039 06/04 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP242 P0006 60011 T00560039 10067 20050 400720044 53007
KSAT 240853Z 34004KT 9SM -RA OVC040 05/03 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP234 P0001 60014 T00500033 58008