In the following sections I will discuss the climatology for San Antonio, Texas and International Falls, Minnesota which were the first two of five cities in the National Weather Challenge Forecasting Contest.

I will also take a closer look at two specific forecasts, one for each location, that did not turn out as expected, and analyze why this possibly occurred and how I learned from the failed process to improve my forecasting skills.

A third area that I will explore is a method for predicting the high temperature for a location which is known as the Delta Method and how it is computed and applied. In this case it is illustrated for San Antonio, Texas in February 2007.

My last area will deal with specific strategies that I've noticed myself following over the last few weeks and how I plan to either continue to apply these or modify my habits to improve my skills as a forecaster.

So without any more delay, lets move on to a section that interests you below, either the climatology, delta method explanation, or forecast analysis and critiques themselves, or my reflections on my habits and strategies to improve my forecasting over the remaining period of the contest. Simply select the link below and you will proceed to that section.

• San Antonio Climatology

• International Falls Climatology

• Application of the Delta Method for predicting high temperatures at San Antonio, Texas on February 6, 2007

• Lessons Learned from San Antonio, Texas February 2, 2007 high and low temperature forecast errors

• Lessons Learned from International Falls, Minnesota February 23, 2007 low temperature forecast error

• Reflections and strategies to improve forecasts going forward