|George R. Kasica
METEO 410 Portfolio #2: Forecast Analysis for San Antonio, Texas and International Falls, Minnesota
In the following sections I will discuss the climatology for San Antonio, Texas and International Falls, Minnesota which were the first two of five cities in the National Weather Challenge Forecasting Contest.
I will also take a closer look at two specific forecasts, one for each location, that did not turn out as expected, and analyze why this possibly occurred and how I learned from the failed process to improve my forecasting skills.
A third area that I will explore is a method for predicting the high temperature for a location which is known as the Delta Method and how it is computed and applied. In this case it is illustrated for San Antonio, Texas in February 2007.
My last area will deal with specific strategies that I've noticed myself following over the last few weeks and how I plan to either continue to apply these or modify my habits to improve my skills as a forecaster.
So without any more delay, lets move on to a section that interests you below, either the climatology, delta method explanation, or forecast analysis and critiques themselves, or my reflections on my habits and strategies to improve my forecasting over the remaining period of the contest. Simply select the link below and you will proceed to that section.