Reflections

Carson's Corner F3

Close to Home
The outbreak of supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes on March 12, 2006 hit close to home for me on several counts.  First of all, it was happening all around me, especially the afternoon and evening storms, though the most severe cells skirted the farm to the west/northwest and the east/southeast.  We got the edges of the wind, rain and hail (marble size in the evening), but never the brunt of anything.  Across the county, up in the city, down the road - all were getting hammered while we remained on the fringes.  However, we had sufficient lightning to make the power go out three times while I was trying to capture images! 

The outbreak was bad enough, with major damage and destruction and several fatalities, but was also noteworthy in that it came in three phases.  The morning elevated convective thunderstorms, the afternoon eruption that included the 14-hour 600+ mile path supercell, and the evening clusters followed by the squall line ahead of the frontal boundary.  The Channel 5 meteorologist Katie Horner stayed on the air non-stop for about a two hour stretch as the tornadoes kept spawning in the early evening.  The Channel 4 meteorologists couldn't get away with more than frequent interruptions of programming due to the NASCAR race on that channel. 

A View of the Whole Outbreak
These links will take you to a loop of the entire day's outbreak activities.  This one is from the SPC Severe Thunderstorm Event Index (in upper left margin, scroll down to Image Loop and click on RAD).  It clearly shows the three phases and the 14-hour supercell from the second phase in the afternoon (it merges with another cell and keeps traveling northeast out of the frame).  That cell eventually dissipated in Michigan, having originated on the Oklahoma/Kansas border.  This loop is from the Department of Meteorology at Penn State University (click Yes and the middle Play button on the image), and also clearly shows the three phases, long-lived supercell, and squall line.  I like the black background as the cells show up even better (and of course look more ominous).

In addition to the close proximity of the storm activity, finding out (first from an SPC storm report!) that a tornado had touched down and taken a path so close to my relatives' house gave me chills.  As I noted in the introductory Story, they spent that night in their little closet under the stairs, and their neighbor watched it go across the lake.  The story was that she kept asking him "Is it time yet?" and finally he said, "Okay, let's go!"  What the neighbor guy was doing outside in the dark watching for a tornado I have no idea. 

In addition, I put together this set of SPC Storm Report graphics to give a comparison of the numerous outbreaks we've had this spring.  I call it the Outbreak of Outbreaks, and it spans from February 16 to April 18, 2006. 

Putting it All Together - Challenges
What brought it all together for me was going down there the following weekend and surveying the damage for myself.  This was my first field analysis and I have to admit I enjoyed that part - the work, not the fact that I was witnessing so much destruction.  There was no joy in that.  But there was awe at the power of nature and of the storm.  I've seen men work all day or longer with a backhoe and ropes and tractors to try to dig up a hug tree stump - this F3 tornado pulled them out of the ground in seconds, and twisted them as well.  Those picnic tables in the damsite park are sturdy steel - to see them twisted and flattened was almost incomprehensible.  And how much force must it take to twist and flatten huge boats and RVs?  Just awesome.

Also, putting all of this together with all the science we've been learning was invaluable - and I have to use awesome again as to how some curved, colored lines and numbers on a map can translate to something so real like this.  The possibilities and probabilities given all the numerous variables of the atmosphere giving us clues as to the spawning of a monster like this, along with the ability to see the thing clearly on a radar screen and know it for what it is.  Having done this post mortem on this storm and picking out the exact cell has been most enlightening - to be able to do that is one of the most enjoyable things I've learned.

As to putting it all together, the hardest part for me is the science.  It's so difficult to remember all the concepts, not to mention all the various tools and how to access and use them.  So many numbers and values and nuances of shape to remember, as well as interactions amongst the tools themselves - if one thing is weak another might be strong enough to counteract it, therefore you can't rule something out just because it's value is weak (when a strong value would indicate its possibility).  Another challenge is the time it takes to look at all the tools and variables - someday I hope to be able to do that by rote and to think quickly enough to paint a picture of the situation in a timely manner.  I'll be practicing that over the summer (monitoring tools and forecasting), as well as gearing up for hurricane season and dusting off the things I learned in Meteo 241.  One thing about the weather - it never ends (except for the Dust Bowl). 

Of course, storm monitoring is null and void if the computer is inoperable, whether from a slow DSL connection for some reason, lightning in the vicinity, or a power outage.  It's hard to look at the storm variables and radar sites without a computer!  How we do depend on them.  I just wonder what kind of backup power they had to have in Oklahoma City during the May 3, 1999 F5 tornado that went through Moore not that far from the NSSL. 

Another challenge for me is taking the scientific concepts and putting them into my own words.  This surprises me, because I'd been called a good writer up to this point.  I seem to take the concept and skew it in the process of translation.  I also tend to try to simplify it, which is probably why important parts of it become lost.  My ePortfolio is full of things I need to go back and rewrite. 

And the biggest challenge has been formatting a web page to upload correctly.  I have a problem with my file structure and images every time, and become so frustrated I could scream.  And often do.  It's always some little bit of coding in the file name that throws me off, something I can't see, is so small and simple to fix, but throws the whole thing off for me. 

Future Possibilities
Having been through a field analysis and post mortem for a storm, I'd really be interested in doing that again.  I also still want to storm-chase, but I don't know anybody who'd take me under their wing to teach me without me having to fork out $3000.  I'd really like to work in the local NWS office at Pleasant Hill, but have been told no one gets in there without having been in a lowly government job (i.e. Dept. of Transportation, etc.) for years.  I'm not of the age to have that kind of time ... or patience.  I do intend to contact them again when I have the certificate completed - it never hurts to ask.  I'll also let the local meteorologist know, because you never know what little gap may be out there than I can fill.  And to be able to work with something that I cared about and that interested me would be a complete change of pace, as I've never been able to do that before.

Debbie Jarvis-Ferguson
METEO 361 - April 21, 2006

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