Lastly we can look at the 9-11km storm relative winds chart from 7pm CST that evening which has values in the range of 40 to about 80 knots at that time. This parameter is used to predict what type of supercell storm might form over an area. There are basically 3 types of supercell storms that the SPC looks for:

• High Precipitation Supercells (or HP for short) which means that the storm will produce a large quantity of precipitation over the area it passes. These storms usually form when the parameter value is below 40 knots due to the fact that the winds are relatively light and the precipitation falls back to the surface over a smaller more concentrated area.
• Classic Supercells when the value is between 40-60 knots.
• Low Precipitation Supercells (or LP for short) which means the storm will produce relatively small amounts of precipitation over the area. These storms usually form when the value is greater than 60 knots and are lower in precipitation over a given area as the higher winds tend to distribute the precipitation over a wider area and therefore any given spit receives a relatively lower amount.

(This image is courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center)

By applying the SPC's guidelines this would indicate mostly classic supercells or ones that are lower in quantity of precipitation they produce would be formed. Therefore, in looking at this one index at least, it would not appear that heavy rainfall amounts would be a large risk to the area the storms were about to cross over. That however, was small consolation to those in the path of what was about to occur unfortunately.

In the process of collecting data for this assignment and compiling it into a finished product it was easy to become overwhelmed by the sheer volume of information available to analyze the storm systems. I was also easy to lose sight of the real consequences of what the storms did to a large area of the central United States in just a mater of a few hours. The latter of these was easily remedied by simply looking at the photographs taken of the area around Springfield IL after the storms passed and looking at the long list of damage caused by them. The former was not so easily cured. In examining it, the Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis Page has no less than 45 separate parameters that are updated no less than on an hourly basis, if not more frequently for things such as radar or satellite or watch box images. To be able to sit and look back in time at a leisurely pace at even a few of these items in detail is a difficult task for me to perform quickly at this time. To realize that the SPC forecasters have to look at many or all of these items in near real time conditions and decide on where, when and if watches and warnings should be issued seems to me to be a monumental task, and one that requires a high degree of training and skill. The consequences of getting it incorrect are simply staggering - it could literally mean people's lives are lost or millions of dollars in property damage are caused that might be preventable with sufficient notice.

In looking at the conditions from the day here, it seemed quite clear that the watches and warnings needed to be issued where they were in fact placed and at the times they were effective for. One thing that I do wonder about and will attempt to discover in the remainder of the course is whether or not the SPC tends to be overly cautious on issuance of watches in marginal situations or if they tend to not want to "cry wolf" too often and in effect cause people to ignore what might someday be a real watch or warning. In either case they are walking a fine line of decision making when they do or do not issue a warning as the consequences of guessing incorrectly are quite high either in terms of credibility or more importantly in human lives.