REFLECTION

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) offers such a wide array of variables to examine that it's hard for me to know where to begin looking.   Now that I've taken Meteo 361, I know what many of the different products indicate when I click on the left panel. For example, I know how fields like CAPE, theta-e and wind shear can increase the chance of thunderstorms; therefore, I can predict much better what the chances of severe weather are across the country to my own back yard.

With so many parameters to look at, it's very easy for me to mistake one high value as automatically giving a certain area a high probability of severe weather.  For instance, just because one area has very large CAPE values doesn't mean the wind shear is high and vice versa.  So, looking at just a couple variables on the SPC website doesn't tell the whole story.  Instead, I need to start examining all the surface and upper-air data to know what area has the best chance of thunderstorms.

I think one of my strengths as a mesoscale forecaster is knowing the general process of making a severe weather forecast.  First, I like to look at the upper-air patterns to see where there's lots of divergence, dynamic lift and shortwave troughs.  Also, it's important to examine the wind a little closer to the surface to see if there's an adequate moisture source.  Then, I find the surface low and attending fronts, all of which is a focus for severe weather.  Now, it's time to go to the SPC website to further explore the mesoscale analysis in this area.  As I mentioned, I have to not put too much emphasis on one thing and put all the information together to make an informed forecast, and even then, nothing is a certainty.  

The hardest thing for me about using the SPC website is remembering what values are considered high, what values are considered low and what values are considered moderate when looking at all of the different fields.  There's been so much to learn this semester that often I have to review the material to make sure I haven't made a mistake interpreting the images.  What I need to do is make a list of all the parameters and what's considered to be high and low for each until I get everthing memorized.  

I'm thrilled with the amount of meteorology I've learned this semester, everything from lake-effect snow to tornadoes.  I know that every time a severe weather event is ongoing, I can go to the SPC website and others to see and understand what's making it happen. Now, I'll never stop learning because knowledge is experience and I'll gain more and more experience in forecasting every time severe weather occurs   


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