PROJECT 3 REFLECTION

I'm glad that Hurricane Frances was the storm that was chosen for us to write about this time because it brought record rainfall to
Western Pennsylvania, where I live, even though the record only lasted about a week as Hurricane Ivan, the other storm I wrote
about, broke Frances' records.  Although I greatly enjoyed researching the various aspects in what made Frances such a powerful
storm, this project was by far the most challenging of the three to write, mainly because thinking I've learned all about what makes
a hurricane form is one thing. then, trying to explain it to someone else makes me realize I didn't know as much as I thought.  

The most difficult part for me to explain was why a huuricane weakens during an eyewall replacement cycle.  I had to reread the
text in lesson 10 many times to fully understand this concept.  For instance, as the radius of maximum wind speed increases, the
tangential wind speed decreases.  Learning and explaining that was certainly not easy.  Although I already knew that warm sea
surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear were necessary for hurricanes to develop, I learned that 26 C is the threshold
for tropical storms to form and how to calculate vertical wind shear.  Also, I learned how important high mid-tropospheric
relative humidity is to the formation of hurricanes, because once dry air entrainment is involved, these storms have little chance
of surviving and I learned in greater depth how the Bermuda High steered Frances toward Florida.

Of course, researching all these things, as well as steering currents and easterly waves, brought me back to Earth Systems
Research Laboratory (ESRL).  In my last project about the Onset of the Indian Monsoon, I said "researching this project forced
me to master the ESRL plotting page," and apparently I did.  While making my mid-tropospheric relative humidity map for
Frances, I discovered the highest humidity didn't match up with the exact position of the storm.  When I pointed this out to
Steve, he agreed and changed the guidelines for this part of the project.  Although I realized the computer generated images
aren't foolproof, like most computer models, I've certainly enjoyed discovering all I can do with them, including all the websites
I'm using in the Global Tropical Center.  While I've been to sites like the National Hurricane Center before, the Navy/NRL and
the CIMSS tropical websites are loaded with so much more information that I will always use, especially things that I learned
about in this project, for instance vertical wind shear graphics and MIMIC animated images.  

The discussions and examinations of hurricanes in the Global Tropical Center is another thing I enjoyed, especially my week as
weather briefer.  It was a big thrill to have fellow students and Steve compliment me on the work I did.  For example, I sparked a
conversation about the central dense overcast (CDO) in mature hurricanes.  Some students thought that this was a term used in         storms only before an eye developed, while I thought the CDO also existed around the eye of a hurricane.  Lee and Steve had
differing opinions on this topic, as well.  So, they e-mailed an expert in the field and, as it turns out, I was right.  With the
different computer model data I've learned about, I know, now, that I can make an informed forecast regarding tropical systems
anywhere in the world, just like real professionals.

Not only has this class greatly enhanced my hurricane forecasting skills, it's forever changed my knowledge of these powerful
storms, everything from their origins as easterly waves to the conditions that are favorable for their strengthening and decline.
Another great thing about the Certificate Program is that I've got to meet real meteorologists and see where and how they make
their forecasts.  I was invited to see the Penn State show, Weather World of which I've been a viewer for 20 years and I got to
meet my teachers along the way, both of which is something I'll truly never forget.  So, as you can see, taking these classes have
been a rewarding experience for me in many ways.



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