REFLECTION

Now that I know more what to look for, I'm getting better at finding the general risk area for severe thunderstorms.  The first thing I like to look at is the upper-air pattern.  The 500-mb and 300-mb charts show where there's lots of strong winds, dynamic lift and troughs of low pressure which are important ingredients for thunderstorm development.  Looking at 300-mb also is key for identifying areas of divergence in the right entrance and left exit regions of jet streaks.  Next, I think it's wise to examine the flow at 850-mb to see if there's adequate moisture moving into the storm.  Surface lows now form in response to these features and their attending fronts are prime areas to find severe weather.  

Once I find the general area at risk, I can look at the mesoscale features that could make an outbreak more likely.  For example, looking at a skew-t over a given area will tell me more about the temperature and dew point profile.  I can, then, learn more about such important variables as CAPE, theta-e and even the Lifted Index, all of which play a critical role in thunderstorm development. Once storms do form I look at Doppler radar and try to find a velocity couplet which is indication of a mesocyclone which could lead to a tornado.  While I'm pretty good at finding these on images of storm relative motion, it's much more difficult for me to find areas of divergence, convergence and straight-line winds on images of Doppler based velocities.  These concepts are new to me, so as I gain more experience, I hope I improve recognizing these features, too.

I know I'm just a beginner at knowing exactly where or if severe thunderstorms will erupt.  For instance, I thought this outbreak I documented would produce a lot more tornadoes, but I guess the upper-air dynamics and low-level instability didn't quite come together.  I should probably start focusing more on the different mesoscale boundaries in the area to improve there.  To do that, I need to study satellite and radar images more closely and most importantly learn as much as I can about the different mesoscale features professionals forecasters use every day to warn people at risk for severe thunderstorms.


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