Reflections
Introduction
This section marks the closing statements to this ePortfolio project, to this semester of Meteo 410, and to the Certificate Program. Below I've separated sections out to include the most important lesson I've learned about myself as a forecaster, identifying the area I feel to have grown the most and tracking that through the four certificate classes, and a philosophy statement on how I regard the weather and forecasting borne from my experiences during this program.
Most Important Lesson Learned About My Self as a Forecaster
The most important lesson I learned about myself as a forecast is that I am now able to understand scientific concepts now, not only about the weather, but also about engineering, etc. Somehow studying these concepts has trained my brain to be able to fit those pieces together when I hear them in other contexts. This is very rewarding, and opens up other interesting avenues of information that I wouldn't have even listened to before. I've watched pieces on Alaskan king crab fishing, scientifically-based ghost hunting, engineering problems and solutions to the flooding of Venice by the Adriatic Sea, the inner workings of combustion engines for cars and bikes, and various principles of dynamics in racing. I found I could actually envision what they were talking about so that I could understand it, which I simply never did before this program.
I'm also quite pleased to see that I can persevere when I really want something. This program has been rigorous, and I panicked many times, but always came through. I'm very proud of that part of myself that I didn't know I had in me. This program has made me stronger as a person, stronger inside, at the core, where it counts.
And as for the most important lesson learned about myself relating to the weather, it would have to be that you can study and study and learn and learn and practice and practice (run-on sentence on purpose for the point factor), but in the end, the weather can and will still surprise you. The weather is the epitome of the word "unpredictable." We can analyze and compare the data, discern the weather patterns, apply the laws of physics and other atmospheric dynamics, but in the end, when she chooses, she can quickly change the pattern, mix up the variables, and wreak havoc unexpectedly. The science of weather forecasting is pretty solid in that these occurrences are farther and fewer between than in the past when meteorology was in its infancy. Thanks to supercomputers and other discoveries that make timely data more accessible, we have the ability to predict more accurately than ever before. However, one must always live in awe of the natural forces and never forget their awesome power. New Orleans and Hurricane Katrina, Oklahoma City (F5 tornado), Indonesia (Dec 2004 tsunami), Buffalo, NY (lake-effect snows), Eastern Seaboard (Blizzard of 2005), California (wildfires and flooding), Houston, TX (flooding after Tropical Storm Allison), Great Plains (drought) - all are a testament to mankind's fragility in the face of Mother Nature and her ability to continually wreak havoc with our predictions and with our world.
As for what I've learned about myself as a forecaster in relation to this contest, it would be that I am worthy of competition with others with more background, and can hold my own thanks to what I've learned, how I've been taught, and my own perseverance. My ranking has gone up and down based on what I've struggled with for the various cities. But what comes to mind for me is the very last leg of the tour - during the last two weeks of Grand Junction, CO, I seemed to have a handle on the cold air from the Arctic air mass and the snowpack effects on the high and low temperatures. I climbed from #387, to #144, to #68, to #56, to #37, to #23. But when the snowpack melted and the Arctic air moved out, the climate of the high desert started to kick back in and I didn't account for how quickly it would warm back up, so I dropped to #74, to #122, with a final cumulative score of 90 overall. This was disappointing, but when looked at in the context of the contest, I finished #90 out of 1262 meteorology students, meteorology professors, and professional meteorologists. Taken in that context, I learned that I can do this. That makes me very proud of what I have accomplished.
Tracking of the Area of Most Growth
I think the area where I've grown the most is in my writing and how I approach the science of meteorology now. My reflections for each project not only took on length with time, but also breadth and depth. They started out from "giggling wonder and glee" to "thoughtful analysis and enlightenment." I've taken a few tidbits from each course that illustrate my focus during that time, along with some of the things that I learned and how they affected me.
In Meteo 101, I was hungry for learning about past storms and the data/analysis behind them. The Oklahoma City 1999 Tornado Outbreak and the Xenia, Ohio 1974 Tornado Outbreak were two I wanted to focus on. My reflections were very short, but centered on my awe at being able to understand the local weatherman and the maps. My mind was reeling with the number of data on a surface analysis and the minute variables involved in determining conditions and probabilities. I came into this class with a poetic bent toward the weather, and came out with a better foundation for understanding what my words described. Putting the two together served to enrich both facets for me.
In Meteo 241, I was obsessed with the eyewall replacement cycle. The record hurricane season of 2005 served to sate this hunger, and Hurricane Wilma is one of the storms that provided me with a case study of my obsession. Besides the obvious joy, awe, and incredulity that the record season provided, of note in my reflections is how I was able to relate something I'd just learned to a movie I saw that fall - here is a direct quote from my Reflections from :Tropical Seasoning
Also, I was curious about the Horse Latitudes and where they might be. I watched a movie called "Visitors" a couple of weeks ago about an Australian woman who takes a solo sailing trip around the globe, with the intent to break a record for time. Her only rules were that she couldn't use her engine and she couldn't make contact other than radio with another human during her trip. She did fine until her return, where she encountered the calm, windless seas of the Horse Latitudes. In the movie, she spent several weeks stranded on motionless waters."
I had always thought the Doldrums were what caught sailors like this with no wind to move their boats. Learning about the Doldrums and the Horse Latitudes, the seasonal movement of the various ocean conditions, the Trade Winds, and how and where the hurricanes are born was fascinating. That phrase I just used, "how and where hurricanes are born," is an oversimplification - tropical waves, tropical depressions, tropical storms, hurricanes, and the conditions that enhance or hinder their development, would be more appropriate. Then there's the determination of strength and path - all meteorologists study that anew with each new storm and with each new season.
On this note, a word needs to be said about Katrina. Hurricane Katrina brought the long-prophesied and long-dreaded destruction to the city of New Orleans with massive flooding from the sea and from the breaking of the levies on Lake Pontchartrain. Utter chaos ruled for months, half the city was totally ruined, the death toll was the highest since the Galveston Hurricane of 1900. Not only in New Orleans, but also the Mississippi coastline saw a repeat of the destruction wrought in 1969 by Hurricane Camille. Entire beachfront communities no longer exist. Water, food, shelter, comfort - all dreams of the past for weeks and months for the people of these areas. FEMA, to whom the nation turns for help in times of chaos, let these people down in an inexcusable bout of political squabbling. FEMA trailers stood unoccupied while needy victims remained homeless and destitute. To this day, this situation has not been rectified. My only hope is that the history books print the truth of what happened on this day. Of note is that news teams and even the meteorological professionals of The Weather Channel who went to report, as well as all of those who went to help, also got caught in the chaos and discomfort - no one was immune. Mother Nature lashed out vehemently against the Crescent City and her Gulf Coast neighbors, and no human could stand against her. Having been a part of this class at this time made us a part of this history.
On a lighter note, one of my reflections had to do with bringing the whole big El Nino concept down to the individual, which is really what it's all about. From global weather patterns, to continental weather effects, to local weather events, to the individual just trying to plan his/her day. Another direct quote:
"Being able to find visual indications of noted conditions was very helpful in understanding the changes that took place and the interplay with other types of weather and climate conditions. And bringing the whole subject down to the lone Peruvian fisherman, distressed by the absence of his usual catch of sardines, yet gladdened by the "unexpected harvest of warm-water scallops that washed ashore on the coast of Ecuador." [Reports to the Nation On Our Changing Planet: El Nino and Climate Prediction]
In Meteo 361, I was obsessed with the mesoscale convective complex and mesoscale convective system. I was treated to a few case studies of this obsession, especially within the March 11-12 Outbreak in Missouri - which also gave me experience with local, hands-on analysis. This was a very personal storm system, as evidenced in my ePortfolio project on the outbreak. Not only did I experience it, but an F3 tornado hit close to my relative's house, and I was able to tour the damage and perform my first post storm field analysis. Not only that, but I discerned the path before the official NWS report came out, and this made me proud at what I'd learned so far. I still think that I'd enjoy the work of post mortem for storms, from the physical damage report and path discernment, to the forensic research of conditions that lead to the event.
In addition, one of my reflections for the Heartland Tornado Outbreak - March 11-12, 2006 states that "this project was the epitome of why I'm taking these classes." As I reported stats from storm reports on the Classroom board the next morning, I mentioned in that posting that "this outbreak was a record-breaker and would stand along with the Super Outbreak of April 3-4, 1974. By the end of the week, the local National Weather Service office posted a short storm synopsis, and they mentioned the same thing, which made me proud that I had recognized that myself." A keen eye and strong intuition can be just as important sometimes, with the science to back it all up.
Though this was my favorite type of weather, mesoscale low pressure systems and their subsequent violence in the Heartland, Midwest and South, we had fairly quiet weather during this semester. We were favored with these brief but severe outbreaks from the beginning of March through mid-April, when all quieted down for the coming summer. It's almost as though the hurricane season took something out of the atmosphere, and the outbreaks served to finish cleaning it out. But I know that's not a valid scientific assumption. However, I still find that the old weatherisms used by farmers and grandmothers for centuries do hold true, and are natural signs of the science that lies underneath. In fact, the science is after the fact in that it came along to explain the unexplainable but still very real signs. Case in point: my husband has a wood shop in the garage which he heats with an antique wood stove vented through the back. He called the other day and asked what kind of storm was brewing, because the smoke from the woodstove was lying along the ground outside in the field. A few clicks to various websites brought the conclusion that a frontal system was coming in that would bring some rain and dropping temperatures. In addition, a temperature inversion was in place, causing the smoke to lay lower in the atmosphere closer to the ground rather than rising up. Bingo - natural sign validated and science upheld.
In Meteo 410, there was no time to be obsessed since we were in the ring and forecasting daily. During the contest, we got to experience all the different types of weather we'd learned about, except for hurricanes. The crowning event of this semester was the potent Arctic front and record snowfall in Grand Junction, CO which threw our climatology out the window. I learned about geography and climatology as well as practicing the meteorology, which was quite interesting. I also learned the discipline of the daily deadline, and the importance of creating a template for ease of memory and recording data, as well as for data comparison. I learned not to take anything for granted or make assumptions. Case in point, the power of low pressure systems and frontal boundaries - the difference in its effect on the Rocky Mountains, the Great Plains, and the still-tropical fall climate of Florida. And I learned how important local climate and terrain are to the variables we'd learned about in a generic context. Many times there was a caveat to these lessons about the assumptions made of no moisture, flat terrain, etc., so that the concept could be taught in a basic sense. Now I know what those caveats were for.
I put in my reflections for the ePortfolio 3 on the last three cities of the forecasting contest that I'd like to be able to "feel the forecast." Direct quote:
I would like to forecast for the skies I see around me - meaning that I could see tangible evidence of what did or didn't happen that was based on maps and statistics. I'd really like to put that together - "feel the forecast." For example, the most exciting time was the Jackson squall line when I read it, I saw it in data, then later I saw it happen on radar. I love that!"
Which leads to the conclusion of this section. I've said before that I entered this program so I could read and understand storm reports, storm histories, and the local weatherman and his maps. I have accomplished this goal. But there's something else, something that was deeper that spurred me on to this point. I quote now from the reflections in The Heartland Tornado Outbreak - March 11-12, 2006:
I wish my mother were here to see what I've accomplished. Every time it would "cloud up" she'd go get the book of state maps that outlined all the counties and cities and we'd watch the weather (Harold Taft, Channel 5, Dallas, Texas, 1960s and 1970s) and determine where the storms were in relation to our house. I'd never really thought of it before, but I guess you could say she fed my interest in meteorology by doing that. I still have that book."
Philosophy Statement
My philosophy regarding weather and forecasting is twofold. First, I believe that weather patterns can be discerned from the myriad data available thanks to our fast-paced, computer-generated world, as well as thanks to the research, experiments and discoveries of so many prominent people through the centuries. But second, I believe that the weather cannot be predicted perfectly. I believe this allows us to make important decisions and impart timely warnings based on the data. But it continues to allow the wonder of Nature to remain illusive and mystifying, which feeds the excitement of the magic of the storm. My attitude is still one of wonder and awe at the weather, though I now have a foundation of understanding at what the atmosphere may or may not do and why. But wonder aside, there is still a responsibility for those who can discern the weather patterns to continue to warn those who can't of impending danger. Or at the very least, to carry an umbrella or dig out their winter coat for today. My goal is to continue to study this science of illusive nature, and perhaps find a way to use this knowledge and skill in my work life, to make a living doing what I love and love what I do to make a living.
The two major experiences during this program that come to mind to illustrate both sides of this philosophy are Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 and the Heartland Tornado Outbreak in March 2006. Actually, both sides of the philosophy can be illustrated within Hurricane Katrina alone. My paragraph in the section above on Katrina sums this up. The gist of the situation was that the meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center and the National Weather Service were on top of the entire development and track of this storm. There was no surprise as to it's strength or path probability. FEMA and the Mayor of New Orleans talked of preparedness, yet when it came down to the actual event, they were not. The blame game started and hindered the relief efforts. Chaos, widespread destruction, rampant crime and a high death toll followed. In summary, the storm was tracked, monitored, and predicted fairly well. Still, the human factor was surprised at the outcome. In spite of the information readily at hand, they were still surprised at how powerful Mother Nature could be. I don't believe there is any way anyone in that city, no matter how unaware of their surroundings, could not have known that storm was coming and that it was a monster aiming straight for them.
The Heartland outbreak was a bit different. There were three phases to the storm system - one in the morning hours in northern Missouri. The second in the afternoon and early evening hours, which is the one I experienced firsthand here at the farm, a bit south of the first band. The third, which is the one I used for my ePortfolio that spawned the F3 near my relative's house further south still, occurred in the late evening hours. Specifically, the cell I tracked occurred around 10:15 pm CST. Out of the third band of supercell activity, there were 14 tornados, 6 fatalities and 49 injuries (Springfield NWS Storm Report). How could this happen with today's technology in weather prediction and the local news covering the situation constantly? Actually, for the same reason as cited above with Katrina. Not everyone watches the news, or at least weren't at that hour. Not everyone is attuned to the weather when they're inside their house and thinking of daily life matters. And not everyone truly believes that the awesome power of Mother Nature will ever touch upon their doorstep. Plus, a number of these people were probably sleeping.
Were there timely warnings based on the data in both instances? Yes, there were. With the tornado outbreaks, the warnings were understandably limited in preparation time, but where there were tornado sirens, they were activated. However, many of these storms occurred over rural areas, and unless they were listening to the news that night, these people were unaware that what was occurring was anything but a regular thunderstorm. In addition, not many people nowadays even know about the natural signs that would tell them of impending severity of the storm. I'm sure they were there. But aside from either of these instances, the fact that it was late at night and people were either preparing for bed or already asleep, these storms had the capability of catching anyone unaware, no matter how attuned to the weather they may be.
The responsibility was carried out - the warnings were issued, the information shared. The weather will always continue to surprise, and there will always be people who do not pay attention to warnings, do not receive them, do not think the weather can hurt them. All you can do is count these up to whose time is up on the grand scale. This relates back to my philosophy in regard to the responsibility as well as the wonder, which will always be a part of forecasting.
Endpiece
In closing, I'd just like to say how grateful I am for this opportunity. This program has enriched my life, given me a new perspective, and developed a confidence in my abilities that I didn't have before. I've learned a great deal about a subject that has fascinated me since childhood, and can actually give a short-term forecast or research a storm event in an informed manner. I can read and understand the NWS discussions and storm reports, and I can understand and interpret the weather maps and charts. I know how to access and utilize many different tools for compiling and comparing data. And last but not least, I can create a web page. I hope to continue to grow on my own, perhaps accessing other online classes through COMET or the NWS sites, and hopefully get the chance to storm chase in the near future.