QUILLAYUTE'S CLIMATOLOGY   

Quillayute, Washington is located on the coastal plain between the Pacific Ocean and the Olympic Mountains, only three miles from the coast. The terrain gradually increases from the coast to an elevation of 180 feet at the reporting station for the WxChallenge, the Quillayute Airport. The topographical map below shows Quillayute's location and proximity to the coast.  

In Quillayute, the maritime air from the Pacific affects the climate throughout the year.  By November, low pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska intensify and move south, bringing in storm systems at frequent intervals.  The area averages of over 100 inches of rain per year.  As a result, there is little diurnal or day-to-day change in temperature, especially in November.  Only large high pressure systems bring an extended break from the rain.


This is a topographical map of Washington which shows Quillayute's proximity to the Pacific Ocean,
courtesy of Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).

Even though the winds aloft are often from the west and southwest in November which bring in the Pacific moisture, the winds at the surface are a different story.  The wind rose plot below shows most of the surface winds are from the east and southeast in November because of low pressure and associated pressure falls in the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure and associated pressure rises over the Great Basin.  You can see these highs and lows on this map of average sea-level pressure from 1968 to 1996 from ESRL.  However, the northeast winds come from high pressure further north over western Canada.

The Local Climate Data for Quillayute shows that the record two-minute sustained wind speed for November is 37 mph (32 knots), but I'm sure normally it's much less.  The average wind speed for Quillayute in November is only 4.6 m/s (9 knots).


This is a wind rose plot, showing Quillayute's wind in November blows mostly from the east and southeast, courtesy of National Resources
Conservation Service.

It will help greatly in the WxChallenge to know the average temperatures and precipitation, as well as the extremes.  Here are the Daily Almanacs for Quillayute during the contest period: November 11, November 12, November 13, November 14, November 18, November 19, November 20 and November 21. From these Daily Almanacs, you can see the average high temperatures range from 52 degrees on November 11 to 50 degrees on November 21 and the record high temperatures for this period range from 56 degrees to 66 degrees.  These temperatures will guide me significantly in predicting what the actuals will be.  Also, it's important to know the lowest maximum temperatures on record, which at this time of year vary from 31 degrees to 47 degrees.  These would most likely occur as arctic highs move south from Canada.

The Daily Almanacs show the average low temperatures only range from 38 degrees on November 11 to 37 degrees on November 21, and the record lows don't change that much either.  They vary from 19 degrees to 26 degrees at this time, again as cold, dry air moves south from Canada.  The highest minimum temperatures in Quillayute range from 46 degrees to 55 degrees, as mild Pacific air can make the air a little warmer on occasion at night. 

As I said, the rainfall in November is extraordinarily high.  The average daily precipitation ranges from a whopping .49 inches on November 11 to .52 inches on November 21, from storm after storm plowing into the Washington coast from the gulf of Alaska.  Finally, the rainfall records can get really wild, ranging from 1.57 inches on November 16 to 5.28 on November 19.  

Now, let's examine the big picture for Quillayute on November 12, when my low temperature forecast busted.


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